Not long ago, Orlando, Florida, felt like it was becoming a Christian mecca. Churches and Christian organizations across the metropolitan area were booming, with several developing massive global ministries.

More recently, there has been a noticeable change. Many in our area have stopped attending church, joining the ranks of what we now call the “dechurched.” Today, the population of former churchgoers is growing quickly — and their rise is not just an Orlando phenomenon.

We started researching the trend so we could equip our Orlando congregation for reaching this dechurched demographic. The inquiry took on a broader scope when we commissioned social scientists Ryan Burge and Paul Djupe for a nationwide, quantitative study.

Burge and Djupe conducted three phases of research with more than 7,000 participants and 600 data points to understand how large the phenomenon is, who is leaving and why, and what is happening in evangelicalism specifically.

We discovered the U.S. is experiencing the largest and fastest religious migration in its history. Some 40 million adults — including 15 million evangelicals — who used to attend a house of worship at least monthly have left church entirely. Most of this transition has taken place within the past 25 years.

By numbers, the American exodus from church includes more people than the movement toward church attributed to the First and Second Great Awakenings and all the Billy Graham Crusades combined. By share of population, it is 25% larger than the surge in churchgoing during the 25 years following the Civil War, which was the second biggest attendance shift in U.S. history.

How It Started

Churchgoing in America began to change during the last decade of the 20th century.

As Burge writes, “The early 1990s was an inflection point for American religion. Between the early 1970s and 1990s, the share of Americans who had no religious affiliation had only risen two points. But from that point forward, the nones [those with no religious affiliation] would grow by a percentage point or two nearly every year through the following three decades.”

We believe four factors may have contributed to this uptick.

First, the Cold War ended. During the Cold War, many people used the terms “American” and “Christian” synonymously.

When an American during that era announced he or she was not a Christian, others might ask, “Then are you a communist?”

During the Eisenhower administration (1953–61), the U.S. government promoted religious patriotism with the adoption of “In God We Trust” as the national motto and the addition of “under God” in the Pledge of Allegiance.

Speaking to the National Association of Evangelicals in 1983, President Ronald Reagan framed the struggle against communism in spiritual terms, labeling the Soviet Union the “evil empire.”

Following the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, however, communism was no longer the greatest concern on the political horizon — and neither was irreligion. Consequently, it became more culturally acceptable to be both American and non-Christian.

Second, an increasingly polarized religious right bound faith with conservative politics. With Jerry Falwell’s Moral Majority political organization, Pat Robertson’s  presidential campaign, and vocal support among some faith leaders for controversial figures like U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, more Americans associated Christianity with conservatism and chose to jettison all of it.

The religious disaffiliation of the political middle contributed significantly to the growth of the “nones.”

Some 40 million adults — including 15 million evangelicals — who used to attend a house of worship at least monthly have left church entirely.

Third, the internet emerged. Although it was slow and in only about 20% of U.S. homes in 1997, many Americans were already logging on at internet cafes, schools and libraries as early as 1994.

For the first time, people could instantaneously exchange ideas and form communities in digital spaces, interacting with users whose beliefs were different and perhaps even socially unacceptable.

Fourth, 9/11 gave Americans a new enemy. If the Cold War boosted religiosity in the fight against communism, 9/11 showed religion can generate evil too. It was enough of an excuse for some to give up their church affiliation.

Of course, many church dropouts were never practicing Christians. Contemporary events simply nudged them toward embracing their true identity.

Fast forward past recent presidential administrations, COVID-19, church abuse scandals, and growing racial tensions, and those leaving the Church look much different today.

The political right is now dechurching at twice the pace of the political left, even though many of them share the religious beliefs of their churchgoing peers.

The Stakes

The movement of 40 million U.S. adults away from Church is already having widespread reverberations that primarily fall into three categories: relationships, institutions, and culture.

Relationally, dechurching is undeniably taking a toll on families and friendships. I (Jim) opened a global ministry’s donor event last year with a 10-minute speech on dechurching. The keynote speaker who followed was a recognized pastor with a great message.

Afterward, there was a line of people waiting to talk with me. Many handed me their business cards and asked what they could do to help with our project.

Amid this scene, I glanced over and saw the keynote speaker getting coffee by himself. It seemed strange. This speaker was better known and delivered a more dynamic message.

Then I realized I was talking about the children and grandchildren of the people in this line. The statistics I shared are more than just numbers. They represent real people who are walking away from church. The concern and grief on the faces of their friends and family members were equally real.

On the institutional front, much is at stake for churches, denominations and networks. In 2020, the share of Americans claiming membership with a place of worship fell below 50% for the first time since Gallup started asking the question in 1940.

Gallup shows membership plummeting by nearly a third since 1995, and attendance declining as well. It’s no wonder many churches are struggling to keep their doors open.

During 2014, 300 more Protestant churches opened than closed in the U.S., according to Lifeway Research. In 2019, however, 1,500 more churches closed than opened.

These studies suggest the impact of the past 25 years is catching up to us.

Decreased church affiliation also means there is less money for ministry. On average, American evangelicals give 2.5 percent of their income annually. As adherents peel away, billions of dollars are leaving local churches, as well as missions and mercy ministries around the globe.

Culturally, those losses will invariably diminish resources for compassion work. Even those who want nothing to do with Christianity should be able to see how this will hurt communities. A 2021 study by The Bridgespan Group, a global research and consulting firm, found faith-based nonprofits comprise 40% of the social safety net in the U.S.

Casual Quitters

The dechurched are not just disillusioned people who have experienced a church-related trauma or crisis of faith. Such things are happening to some, of course, but only about one-quarter of the dechurched cite these as reasons for no longer attending services.

Most who have left church did so without deconstructing or rejecting their faith, and many remain surprisingly orthodox in their beliefs. We call these the “casually dechurched.”

Our study revealed moving to a new city is the most common reason for leaving church. People relocate and simply don’t connect with another congregation.

Others had children who started sports, and Sunday became a game day instead of a worship day.

Still others got out of the habit of attending church during the pandemic and never returned.

The encouraging news is many of these people are willing to go back to church. However, unless we work to reach them, the dechurched will likely stay that way. They will raise children who are unchurched, further changing America’s religious and cultural climate.

Interestingly, we also learned the more education churchgoers have, the more likely they are to keep attending services. Only 3% of evangelicals with a master’s degree have dechurched. This challenges the notion that secular higher education is taking people away from the faith.

In a related finding, dechurching is more prevalent among those with lower incomes. Inflexible work schedules, transportation challenges, and a lack of resources for something as simple as finding service information online can make church attendance more difficult for individuals in this demographic.

Five Groups

Our study used a machine learning algorithm to process the data and group common responses. This provided five helpful profiles of dechurched Americans.

The dechurched are not a homogenous group, but almost every dechurched person you meet will fall into one of the following five profiles.

1. Cultural Christians. Almost exclusively white, these dechurched evangelicals comprise about 8 million people.

Think of a friend who grew up in an evangelical church but was likely never a Christian.

Almost every dechurched person
you meet will fall
into one of the
following five
profiles.

Most of these dechurched individuals didn’t have a particular pain point that led to their departure from church affiliation. Many retain positive feelings toward church and might even show up on Christmas or Easter. Yet they do not hold to the main tenets of Christian faith. In fact, only 1% believe Jesus is the Son of God.

2. Mainstream evangelicals. This group of about 2.5 million people might look similar to cultural Christians in that they dechurched casually from an evangelical church and are overwhelmingly white.

However, there is a key difference: 98% of dechurched mainstream evangelicals believe Jesus is the Son of God. Their orthodoxy scores are actually higher than those who still go to church. By all discernible standards, this group is largely Christian.

Further, 100% of dechurched mainstream evangelicals say they are willing to return to church. Among the dechurched, this group may be the lowest-hanging fruit for effectively rechurching.

3. Exvangelicals. The 2.5 million people in this category are done with any expression of white evangelicalism. Unlike the previous two groups, they cite specific pain points that caused them to walk away.

Exvangelicals are below average in education and income. Yet they retain a high orthodoxy score, with 97% believing Jesus is the Son of God. Despite leaving church, it seems they are holding onto faith.

4. BIPOC (Black, indigenous, and people of color). This group represents about 2.5 million people. Intriguingly, we hid race and ethnicity as factors for machine learning to consider. Nevertheless, this group is 0% white, 82% Black, and 13% Hispanic. It also has the most education and income of any group.

Think of a successful minority business owner who hasn’t regularly attended church since college.

Like cultural Christians, many in this group never fully embraced the gospel. They scored low on core Christian doctrines. Only 13% believe Jesus is the Son of God.

5. Mainline/Roman Catholic. While these people departed from two different kinds of churches, the groups are so similar we decided to lump them together.

This group accounts for about half of the 40 million who have dechurched. The earliest to leave, their dechurching started in the 1990s. Predictably, these individuals are the furthest left politically. They have average education and income levels and say U.S. institutions are working for them.

Most of these dechurched people grew up in church, but stopped attending soon after leaving home. Nearly 70% of this group agrees Jesus is the Son of God. However, less than 15% believe the Bible is the literal Word of God.

Next Steps

The scope of American dechurching is unsettling news, but there is much reason for hope.

First, we must remember God is in control. We know how this story ends. The Church will remain — and prevail (Matthew 16:18).

However, this moment requires more than clever marketing or programs. We need the help of the Holy Spirit (Zechariah 4:6). The best thing we can do is pray, seeking God’s wisdom and guidance. As we intercede for lost and dechurched people within our communities, the Spirit will go before us to work in hearts and lives.

Each person is unique, with a story that is certainly worth hearing. Still, when starting conversations with people who have left church, it helps to keep the five groups in mind and consider where they might fit.

Is the dechurched individual you’re addressing a Christian or non-Christian? Does he or she hold orthodox beliefs concerning the Bible and Jesus? Does the person express hostile or warm attitudes toward church (or perhaps some combination of the two)?

Some people simply need an invitation to return to church. We gave our early findings to The Crossing, a church in Columbia, Missouri, where leaders created an initiative to identify and engage dechurched mainstream evangelicals. Within just a few months, the congregation saw hundreds of dechurched individuals return to worship with them in person.

Sociologists sometimes categorize people groups in terms of belief, belonging, and behavior. All the reasons dechurched mainstream evangelicals gave for considering a return to worship services fall in the category of belonging or reflect their religious beliefs. This group just needs a relational nudge to return to what they already value, along with a stronger coupling of doctrine and ethics.

Other dechurched people, such as exvangelicals, will be harder to reach. They may need to visit your home before they will feel comfortable visiting your church. Some are Christians, but others are not. And some have deep wounds that will require both time and sensitivity to address.

To minister effectively to these dechurched people, churches need to avoid aligning closely with a particular political party, take doctrine and ethics seriously, address mental health needs among congregants, and develop an empathetic community.

We should identify
the groups of people
most likely to
dechurch and make
sure our churches
are fruitfully
ministering to them.

We also need to embrace and preach the gospel, with all its implications and nothing less. It is clear from our research that teaching and living out the good news of Jesus is vital to church success.

Our churches need to offer more than just the latest music and a Ted Talk on weekends. We need effective strategies for discipleship and spiritual formation, sound doctrine, a high regard for Scripture, and consistency between what we teach and how we live. We must root out sinful attitudes of racism and misogyny, and steer clear of divisive partisanship.

Knowledge alone will not create communities people want to join. During the 20th century, we leaned into education in our preaching, teaching, and apologetics, but this often came at the expense of the goodness and beauty of the gospel.

It should not surprise us that many Americans today not only doubt the truth of Christianity, but the ethics of it as well. We must teach and demonstrate what it means to follow Jesus.

We should identify the groups of people most likely to dechurch and make sure our churches are fruitfully ministering to them. This includes people navigating life transitions and individuals with lower incomes.

Teens and young adults aged 30 and under are at high risk of dechurching. Many start drifting from church as they enter adulthood. Although it was common a few decades ago to see three and even four generations of family members sitting together in church, it almost seems novel now. We must recommit to passing our faith to the next generation.

After identifying those who are most susceptible to leaving church, we can develop strategies for ministering to them more effectively. This may mean providing practical help to single moms and discipling young people with an eye toward long-term spiritual growth and maturity.

Stemming the tide of dechurching may also involve following up with those who are moving to new cities and helping them find healthy church communities, as well as mobilizing the first points of contact for new people in our cities. For example, Christian realtors and educators can play a role by connecting new arrivals not only with homes and schools, but also with church families.

As for those who were never Christians to begin with, we would do well to remember the Parable of the Weeds (Matthew 13:24–30; 36–43). Jesus taught that some people might look like they are in the Kingdom when in reality they are not. Some dechurching is simply non-Christians rightly identifying themselves as such.

We should acknowledge and appreciate the honesty of these dechurched people. Further, we can be grateful that some maintain positive attitudes toward the Church and perhaps some training or experience we can build on.

In a context of authenticity, we can listen to the stories of dechurched non-Christians and engage them as people who need to hear the gospel. We want them not only to come back to church, but also to enter a saving relationship with Jesus Christ.

As millions leave the Church, we can’t gloss over the fact that this changes the culture in which we live and will make some things harder for us. We may feel less at home in our own cities, but we can take heart that this has been and is still the norm for most Christians around the globe.

We refer to this situation as “cultural exile.” From Daniel in Babylon to the persecuted members of the Early Church, God’s people have a long history of standing for biblical truth amid a culture that largely rejects it.

The Church in America shouldn’t be afraid of the experience of cultural exile. Christians in the U.S. have grown accustomed to wielding cultural power, but God often calls His people to influence the world from the margins.

We can be the city on a hill without controlling Capitol Hill. And the reality is, having cultural power has not always gone well for Christians. We can learn from our brothers and sisters in minority-Christian nations and the historic Black church in America. In seasons of exile and marginalization, the gospel has advanced powerfully, the faith of believers has been deepened, and God has strengthened His Church.

As for our congregation in Orlando, like every other church, we are learning. We are developing greater awareness of our context and finding ways to minister effectively in it.

Some of these adjustments have been hard. We lost members along the way as we tried to become less partisan and more racially empathetic, grow in relational wisdom, and elevate the vital role of women in leadership.

Sadly, about 80% of our church left from 2018–22. But by God’s grace, our weekly attendance is now three times the size it was in 2018, and we are seeing fruit that is beyond anything we asked or imagined.

It takes courage, clarity, and humility to remain faithful to the mission during difficult times, but that has been the calling of God’s people for thousands of years.

Even now, Jesus is building His Church, and nothing will overcome it.

This article appears in the Fall 2023 issue of Influence magazine.